2024 YR4 is an asteroid NASA estimates its diameter to be between 40m and 90m, but likely more than 50m. NASA classifies it as a near-Earth object with a non negligible probability to hit the planet. Recent estimates put it as an S-type asteroid, ie. mostly of stone composition. Its collision speed with our planet (if it was to happen!) is estimated between 14 km/sec and 19 km/sec. We devised a 2024 YR4 asteroid impact lower bound case scenario where it will hit vertically the planet with a speed of 14 km/sec.
In this model, the asteroid is of cylindrical shape with a diameter of 70m after atmospheric ablation and a length of 47m. We assume that it is of S-type (mostly stone) and impacting vertically soil of stone and clay. Using our analytical code PROFILE (not a numerical simulation code !) we estimate the “instant” crater (that is, before any eventual ground consolidation etc.) to be of no more than 450m diameter and at most 86m deep. The main impact event will last about 10 milliseconds with an energy dissipation equivalent to 15 Megatons of TNT. We shall continue updating the impact scenarios as credible assessment of its size, composition and speed becomes available, irrespective of the probability of impact.
