2024 YR4 is an asteroid NASA estimates it to be of about 90m diameter, and classified it as a near-Earth object. Although a lot is reported about it, it is all speculative. Even his real size and composition are a matter of debate. It is still too far for a proper assessment. Original estimates had put it at even 400m diameter. We devised a 2024 YR4 extreme impact scenario where it will make a direct 45 degrees impact with the planet with a speed of about 20 km/sec.
We assumed a 2024 YR4 asteroid diameter of 100m after atmospheric ablation (really an upper-bound). An average composition similar to the one that extinct the dinosaurs, ie nickel, iron and stone. Using our analytical code PROFILE (not a numerical simulation code !) we estimate the “instant” crater (that is, before any eventual ground consolidation etc.) to be of about 1100m diameter and about 250 to 300m deep, although at places might reach 400m. Its creation will happen within about 20 milliseconds under an energy dissipation equivalent to 200 Megatons of TNT. It does not mean that this is going to happen !!! But we will continue updating the impact scenarios as credible assessment of its size, composition and speed becomes available, irrespective of the probability of impact.